U.S. Will Not Withdraw Missiles, China Test Fires Missiles: U.S.-China Arms Race Quietly Begins
United Daily News Commentary, September 28, 2024
At 8:44 AM on September 25, People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Rocket Force test fired an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) carrying a dummy warhead into the high seas of the Pacific Ocean. The warhead accurately fell into expected sea area. Contrary to the statement from China’s Ministry of Defense that the test firing was a routine annual exercise, it was actually the first launch of an ICBM into the Pacific Ocean in 44 years.
In the past, when China test fired ballistic missiles, the launches were from China’s coastal areas to its inner testing grounds in Qinghai or Xinjiang, but in order to attack targets in the eastern side, PLA has to consider earth’s revolution and the guiding capability of the Beidou Navigation Satellite System, so that the accuracy of the missiles and the independent guiding system of the warheads can be assured.
The purpose of test firings is to make sure the accuracy of the nuclear weapons can be improved. From the satellite photos, the United States found out that China’s ICBMs and nuclear warheads are on rapid increase. It is estimated that China currently possesses 500 warheads and the number will reach 1,000 by 2030. Although the number cannot match that of the United States or Russia, the gap is quickly narrowing.
At the same time, the launch also has the deterrent effect. Before the test firing, China notified countries that would be affected by the trajectory of the missile. The second segment of the propelling rocket fell into the high seas fewer than 90 nautical miles from Luzon, and the warhead fell into the sea area south of Hawaii and French Polynesia. In addition to the Philippines and the United States, all Indo-Pacific countries felt nervous about China’s test firing.
In the past, China’s deterrence strategy was “minimal deterrence”, meaning China does not need to have thousands of nuclear warheads like the United States or Russia; instead, China wants to keep its nuclear capability at the minimal national security level, so China only wants to make sure that it will have the capability to retaliate after the first nuclear strike by its enemy. This strategy is now changing. By test firings, China intends to simulate the use of nuclear weapons to counter American nuclear strategy and warn of the mid-range missiles deployed by the United States and its allies.
There are two situations that PLA would use nuclear weapons first. In the first instance, in a future Taiwan Strait crisis, if China’s nuclear threat cannot thwart external intervention, China may take more dramatic measures such as launching nuclear warheads into the vicinities of Taiwan, Okinawa, Guam, or even Hawaii.
In the war game scenarios of the “Center for Strategic and International Studies” (CSIS), PLA’s use of nuclear weapons was precluded. But in the war game of the Center of New American Security (CNAS), experts of the Red Team representing China finally expressed that if the United States does intervene, China would exhaust all means, including the test firing of nuclear warheads into the sea area of Hawaii just like the September 25 drill.
Second, while China always has the guidance of “No First Use” of nuclear weapons, no one can assume that China will definitely adhere to it. If a conflict escalates, the side with the advantageous military power may have the capability to destroy the majority of China’s nuclear capability by traditional weapons; in fact, American strategy is to conduct precision strikes inside enemy territories. Based on this consideration, China tends to see attacks against nuclear weapons by traditional weapons as nuclear attacks. Therefore, if China’s nuclear assets were attacked by American forces, China’s use of nuclear weapons will not be constrained by the “No First Use” guidance. This may explain why PLA is adjusting its nuclear strategy.
Among traditional American weapons, what worries China the most is its mid-range guiding missiles, especially the Typhon System, with its power proven in the Russia-Ukraine war. The Typhon System is a mobile launcher equipped with Tomahawk cruise missiles ranging up to 2,500 kilometers or the land-based Type Six Standard anti-air missiles with the maximum range of 460 kilometers.
During the U.S.-Philippines joint military exercise in April this year, the United States deployed Typhon System in Luzon. It was the first time the United States deployed mid-range ballistic missiles overseas after the end of the Cold War. The missiles have not been withdrawn after the conclusion of the joint exercise for six months. China has protested strongly but it is in vain. People guess that the deployment may become permanent.
The Typhon System causes continuous headaches to China, because it can defend the northern area of the Philippines and the South China Sea, more important, it can attack PLA warships passing through the Taiwan Strait, and major air, naval and missile bases located in China’s southeastern coast; even China’s Eastern Theater Command is within its range. Some people estimate that 70 percent of PLA’s fleet and 50 percent of its air bases are within the range of the Typhon System.
In addition to the Philippines, the United States wants to deploy the Typhon System in Japan. During his August visit, U.S. Secretary of the Army Christine Wormuth discussed this issue with Japanese Minister of Defense Minoru Kihara. China’s Ministry of Defense expressed strong opposition to the potential deployment on September 26, one day after its ICBM test firing, urging the United States stop this dangerous move and stop creating regional tension. The spokesperson also admonished Japan to act prudently, not to expose itself to danger, and China will react resolutely according to the development and its own needs. This action means that China’s test firing of the ICBM is a warning to the cooperative deployment of mid-range missiles between regional countries and the United States.
The official reaction of the United States to China’s test firing was one day late and mild. The Pentagon spokesperson stated that the United States had received advance notification about the test launching of an ICBM, the United States thinks it is a good thing and a step towards the right direction; it would certainly prevent any misunderstanding or miscalculation.
As a matter of fact, the United States has already begun to prepare for a new round of nuclear arms race. The New York Times and the Economist magazine disclosed simultaneously in August that President Joe Biden had agreed to revise the nuclear weapon strategy in March. The document is entitled “Nuclear Employment Guidance,” with the purpose to quickly coping with nuclear threats from China and Russia. The United States plans to double its stockpile of nuclear weapons and develop new launch platforms such as submarines. The United States also plans to build new missile defense system and use computers to simulate nuclear tests to bolster its nuclear capabilities.
The United States intends to seek peace through war. By revealing its strategy through media reports, the United States wants to force China and Russia to return to the negotiation table, especially when the U.S.-Russia treaty on the reduction of new strategic nuclear weapons will expire in 2026. Although the United States wants to include China in the arms control talks, China shows no interest and has no intention to even continue the dialogue. The West believes that while Beijing is enlarging its nuclear arsenal, it does not want to be constrained by dialogues and does not want the outside world to know the true situation of China’s development of nuclear weapons.
According to Beijing, both sides can sit down to discuss an agreement on mutual no-first-use of nuclear weapons, so both sides could be committed to the no-first-use. But the United States does not want to talk about this agreement because it wants both sides to reduce the number of nuclear weapons in their hands. China thinks it has just begun to increase its nuclear capabilities, and their weapons are far fewer than those of the United States, so it will be in a disadvantageous position if it begins to reduce nuclear weapons.
The United States and China are toe-to-toe on nuclear weapon negotiations, and they can hardly yield on the issue of mid-range guiding missiles. PLA’s missile test firing at this time sounds the starting gun of the U.S-China arms race.