The Economist Describes Taiwan as Most Dangerous Place on Earth, Scholars Concerned
China Times and United Daily News, May 1, 2021
The cover image of the most recent issue of The Economist places a radar map with Taiwan in the center, a mainland Chinese flag to the left, and an American flag to the right, symbolizing the fierce rivalry between China and the United States.
The cover story indicates that, should war break out, not only there will be bloodshed in Taiwan, the risk of war between two nuclear powers will also escalate. Economy is another major reason. Taiwan lies at the heart of the semiconductor industry. The Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) etches 84 percent of the most advanced chips. Were the production by TSMC to stop, so would the global electronics industry. TSMC's technology and know-how are perhaps a decade ahead of its rivals', and it will take many years of work before either the United States or China can hope to catch up.
The Economist further reports that, the bigger reason is that Taiwan is an arena for the rivalry between China and the United States. Although the United States is not treaty-bound to defend Taiwan, a Chinese assault would be a test of American military might and its diplomatic and political resolve. If the Seven Fleet fails to turn up, China would overnight become the dominant power in Asia. America's allies around the world would know that they could not count on it. The “Pax Americana” would collapse.
Moreover, The Economist indicates that, if they are to ensure that war remains too much of a gamble for China, America and Taiwan need to think ahead. Taiwan has to devote more resources to develop tactics and technologies that would frustrate an invasion. The United States requires weapons to deter China from launching an amphibious invasion; it must prepare its allies, including Japan and South Korea; and it needs to communicate to China that its battle plans are credible. America's message should strike a balance: China must be assured that America will not support a dash for formal independence by Taiwan; America will resolutely discourage China from trying to change Taiwan's status by force.
Responding to the cover story of The Economist, President Tsai Ing-wen indicated that the report highlighted the threats that China imposes on Taiwan Strait and its neighboring area and increased concern of the international community. Tsai opined that Taiwan is on the forefront of democracies, and as long as people on Taiwan united together, the challenges will be overcome.
Associate Professor Alex Huang of the Institute of Strategic and International Studies at Tamkang University believes that the main problem lies in the fact that people on Taiwan do not think there is danger of war, while international community all recognize the severe danger. Huang feels that Taiwan is really in danger of a war.
Professor Tang Sao-chen of the Institute of International Relations at National Chengchi University believes that the international analysis is superficial. He saw no sign whatsoever that mainland China is making preparation to attack Taiwan. Tang indicated that another reason there will not be a war is that the United States does not want it. President Joe Biden does not want to push China to the corner. The United States still needs to cooperate with China, although there is competition between them. Hence, the United States will not allow Taiwan to take any impetuous action.
Chief advisor Chao Chun-san of the Foundation on Asia-Pacific Peace Studies thought that the competition between the United States and China is long-term. The predicament Taiwan now faces is that it cannot seek for independence and is not willing to reunify. According to Chao, the reality is that with its rise, mainland China will strive to achieve unification with Taiwan, while the United States will continue to use Taiwan as a card to deter the mainland. Caught in this struggle between the United States and mainland China, if Taiwan refuses unification with the mainland, and at the same time unable to escape from this struggle, war is inevitable.
From:
https://www.chinatimes.com/newspapers/20210501000289-260118