Reuters：Six Conflict Scenarios Battling for Taiwan
China Times, November 5 and 7, 2021
On November 5, Reuters issued a special report titled: “T-Day: The Battle for Taiwan.” The report is based on interviews with 12 military strategists and 15 current and former military officers from the United States, Japan, Australia and Taiwan and articles in American, mainland Chinese, and Taiwanese military and professional journals and official publications. The report examines six conflict scenarios including, in order as follows, the Chinese blockade of the Matsu Islands, invasion of Kinmen, customs quarantine, full blockade, air and missile campaign, and all-out invasion. In the end, the United States, Japan, and Australia jointly assist Taiwan to launch counterattacks against China resulting in major war in East Asia.
The report indicates that a Chinese takeover of Taiwan would be a devastating blow to the United States because at a stroke the United States would lose its status as the pre-eminent power in Asia. If America were unwilling or unable to defend Taiwan, its network of allies in the Asia-Pacific, including Tokyo, Seoul, and Canberra, would be more vulnerable to military and economic coercion from China. Some might switch allegiance to Beijing, others might seek nuclear weapons to boost their own security. Even if the United States did choose to defend Taiwan, there is no guarantee it would defeat an increasingly powerful People’s Liberation Army (PLA).
According to the report, after a long campaign of “gray-zone warfare” (military aircrafts encircling Taiwan) fails to bring Taipei to the negotiating table, Xi and his ruling Communist Party run out of patience and decide to impose a “blockade on the Matsu Islands” as the first step to pressure Taipei to open talks on unification. As soon as Taiwan refuses, the Chinese mainland will take the second step to “invade Kinmen,” and the United States will respond by deploying more air, naval and ground forces to Asia and accelerating arms deliveries to Taiwan and launching a global diplomatic campaign to impose a punishing technology embargo on China.
The third step is “air and sea blockade.” China informs the international community that it will enforce customs, maritime and airspace jurisdiction over Taiwan. Beijing customs quarantine only allows essential supplies of food and energy to pass through. Taiwan begins seeking support from the United States and other allies and open fire on PLA vessels and aircraft with land-based missiles. However, Taiwan’s response won’t be able to maintain the opening of shipping lanes and ports and soon Taiwan will suffer shortage of basic supplies. The fourth step is for China to impose a “full blockade” of Taiwan, only allowing Chinese military and quasi-military vessels to enter. All Taiwan’s communications with the outside world are cut to prevent American and Japanese forces from approaching Taiwan.
After Taiwan secures support from allies, China is caught between American intervention and potential internal revolt. China takes a fifth step to launch “air and missile attack” targeting Taiwan’s infrastructure and military facilities. Despite devastated by the attacks, Taiwan still refuses to negotiate for unification while the United States and other allies decide to deploy forces to reinforce Taiwan’s defenses. The final step is an “all-out invasion of Taiwan.” The mainland Chinese leadership, after realizing there is no guarantee Taiwan would capitulate, decides to launch an all-out invasion. The PLA’s goal is to overwhelm Taiwan before the United States can respond. With its forces in Asia also under attack, the United States is joined by key alliance partners Japan and Australia and begins attacking the invading PLA force. Within hours a major war is raging in East Asia.
The defense of the Pratas Island is focus of concern as think tanks and the media in the United States and Japan predict the Pratas Island could be a target for mainland Chinese military action against Taiwan. Director-General Chen Ming-tong of the National Security Bureau revealed yesterday in the Legislative Yuan that mainland China did debate internally about whether it should attack the Pratas Island. Chen said that despite tension across the Taiwan Strait is higher than before, the NSB doesn’t think the level has reached the point of armed attack. It is unlikely that China will invade the Pratas Island and force Taiwan to negotiate unification in President Tsai Ing-wen’s tenure.
Opposition Kuomintang (KMT) Legislator Lai Shyh-bao quoted former National Security Advisor Robert O’Brien of the United States, who said China could use force against Taiwan before the 2024 U.S. presidential elections, and asked Chen Ming-tong the possibility of this happening. Chen replied that China won’t attack Taiwan in the next 1 to 3 years during President Tsai’s tenure, but Taiwan needs to be careful about any unintended accident or possible contingencies.
Another KMT Legislator Wen Yu-hsia cited the Pentagon’s report of “2021 Military Power of the PRC”, which predicts China will have the capabilities to counter the U.S. forces in the Indo-Pacific region in 2027 and will compel Taiwan into negotiation, and asked Chen’s opinion. Chen said “using military action to force negotiations” is part of the Chinese Communist Party’s strategic thinking, but Taiwan can’t possibly get to the negotiation table at gunpoint.
Legislator Lai stated he has received a constituent’s letter of petition worrying her son’s safety in the Pratas Island and asked Chen to give an assessment of possibility of mainland Chinese attack on the island. Chen replied that NSB has been studying various scenarios of Chinese attack, invading outlaying islands, using military action to force negotiation, blockade and saturation attack are all part of these scenarios.
Another KMT Legislator Johnny Chiang asked Chen whether Taiwan has become frontline of proxy war between the United States and China. Chen disagreed and said that “national unification is one of the three historic missions of the Chinese nation, and the Communist Party and China never ruled out the use of force against Taiwan”. Mainland China’s target is Taiwan. Chen further said that Beijing often claims only unification can guarantee peace and no peace without unification, yet we cannot possibly give up sovereignty to accept the Chinese Communist rule and live under humiliation.
From:
https://www.chinatimes.com/newspapers/20211107000301-260118?chdtv
https://www.chinatimes.com/newspapers/20211105000408-260102?chdtv