"Afghanistan Today, Taiwan Tomorrow？" Su Chi： U.S. May Love You For Now, But May Say Sorry At the End
The Storm Media, August 22, 2021
The political developments in Afghanistan has led to concerns about U.S.-Taiwan relations. Su Chi, former secretary-general of the National Security Council, stated that Taiwanese people must be vigilant. Americans may come to your rescue, may love you very much, may even shed tears for you. But regrettably, an apology is all that may truly come at the end.
Su Chi said in an online program that American actions in Afghanistan were embarrassing and exposed many internal problems. The issues were not President Joe Biden’s responsibility alone, but rather resulted from flaws across the entire structure: the National Security Council, Department of Defense, Central Intelligence Agency, and Department of State.
Su Chi further stated that this episode will plant seeds of doubt in the hearts of U.S. allies in the future, should there be difficulties with Taiwan or the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). If Biden does not speak out quickly at this juncture, much of American diplomatic efforts in the first half of the year will have been for naught, as questions among allies fester. However, whether everyone’s doubts can be eliminated is another matter.
The reason why concern is swirling around the Taiwan issue is that on a list singled out by Mr. Biden, NATO, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan, Taiwan is facing the most danger. Japan and Korea are not fundamentally at risk, nor is NATO as Russian will not make a move—which leaves Taiwan at the top.
Su Chi: U.S. Willing But Unable to Help Taiwan
Su Chi bluntly agreed with President Tsai Ing-wen’s words: "Hong Kong today, Taiwan tomorrow,” which she said during the election. More recently, he has also supported the observation "Afghanistan today, Taiwan tomorrow." Behind the first statement is an assessment of China’s willpower. No matter how much it draws Hong Kong’s derision, the party will not change its practice. The latter statement speaks to the willpower of the United States. After 20 years in Afghanistan, the United States exited in an abrupt and devastating fashion. How will American willpower be demonstrated in the future?
Su Chi also believes that the United States is willing but unable to support Taiwan. Most people in Taiwan have not observed a weakness in the strength of the United States, and now the situation in Afghanistan has laid bare same fundamental problems. Decisions may be made on the basis of cost rather than value: to favor a decision is one thing, but at what cost?
The cost issue is the main issue, observed Su Chi. The United States does not have such power vis-a-vis Taiwan now—and crucially, it has insufficient time. The mainland’s recent exercises also serve as warnings to the outside world that it can “act as soon as possible." For real conflicts between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait, reaction time will prove critical. The United States will likely respond only when the fight is over. It indeed might have the will, but it does not have the power behind it.
He concluded his observations with this: that the Taiwanese people must be vigilant. The Americans may come to your rescue, may love you very much, may even shed tears for you. But regrettably, an apology is all that may truly come at the end. The key now is mainland China and what steps it will take next. But this is a different question altogether.