2024/07/14-2024/07/20

7/15

國造潛艦首艘原型艦海鯤號完成光電潛望鏡組裝,出塢進入泊港測試,預計9月實施海測浮航與潛航測試。

國防部將在2025年度國防預算案中編列長達15年、額度逾2800億元的七艘國造潛艦後續艦預算案,海鯤號出塢加快進入泊港測試,有助說服朝野立委。

July 15:

The first domestically-built submarine prototype Haikun has completed assembly of its electro-optical periscope and has been launched for dockside testing. Sea trials, including surface and submerged tests, are expected to take place in September. The Ministry of National Defense plans to allocate a budget of over NT$280 billion (about US$8.5 billion) for seven follow-up submarines over the next 15 years in the 2025 defense budget. The expedited dockside testing of Haikun will help persuade legislators from both parties.

 

7/15

經濟部能源署公布最新全國電力資源供需報告,受AI科技用電需求5年成長8倍影響,預估未來十年電力需求年均成長2.8%。據報告,今、明年度夜間備用容量率低至8%,約法定標準15%的一半,只要任一大型機組故障,就可能限電。

July 15:

The Energy Administration, Ministry of Economic Affairs, released the latest national power supply and demand report. Due to an eightfold increase in electricity demand from artificial intelligence (AI) technology over the past five years, it is estimated that power demand will grow by an average of 2.8 percent annually over the next decade. According to the report, the nighttime reserve capacity rate for this and next year is as low as 8 percent, about half of the legal standard of 15 percent. The failure of any large unit could lead to power outages.

 

7/16

台灣民意基金會民調顯示,僅4成2受訪者對大法官獨立自主性有信心,5成沒信心,半數國人對大法官獨立自主性存疑,而這將一定程度減弱憲法法庭的公信力與權威性。

July 16:

According to a poll by the Taiwan Public Opinion Foundation (TPOF), only 42 percent of respondents have confidence in the independence of the grand justices of the Constitutional Court, Judicial Yuan, while 50 percent do not. Half of the population doubts the independence of the justices. The subpar public approval may weaken the credibility and authority of the Constitutional Court.

 

7/16

立法院院會表決通過在野所提修正動議,要求解除人民組團赴中國大陸觀光的限制,並優先開放大陸觀光客,循小三通赴金門、馬祖、澎湖等離島旅遊觀光。

陸委會回應,尊重立法院的決議,強調仍將視兩岸互動情況滾動檢討現行政策,同時呼籲陸方相向而行。

July 16:

The Legislative Yuan voted to pass an amendment proposed by the opposition to lift restrictions on group tours to mainland China and prioritize the opening of mainland Chinese tourists to visit Kinmen, Matsu, Penghu, and other outlying islands via the Mini Three Links. The Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) responded by respecting the decision of the Legislative Yuan, emphasizing that it will continue to review current policies based on cross-strait interactions and called on the mainland to reciprocate.

 

7/17

彭博商業周刊刊出美國共和黨總統候選人川普專訪,談及台灣議題時,川普稱台灣拿走了所有晶片業務,「要美國提供保護,台灣應該付錢。」他說,捍衛一個在地球另一端的小島實質上很困難,台灣遠在9500英里外,距離中國僅68英里。行政院長卓榮泰稱,台灣願意付出更多責任。

川普前國安顧問Robert O'Brien隨後建議,台灣應將國防支出至少增加到GDP的5%。學者估算,國防預算將占中央政府總預算歲出比率高達43%。

July 17:

Bloomberg Businessweek published an interview with U.S. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump. When discussing Taiwan, Mr. Trump stated that Taiwan has taken all the chip business and should pay for American protection. He mentioned that defending a small island on the other side of the world is practically difficult, as Taiwan is 9,500 miles from the United States but only 68 miles from China.

Premier Cho Jung-tai stated that Taiwan is willing to take on more responsibility. Robert O'Brien, former National Security Advisor, subsequently suggested that Taiwan should increase its defense spending to at least 5 percent of its GDP. Scholars estimate that the defense budget would account for up to 43 percent of the central government's total budget.

 

7/18

川普「保護費說」讓台積電股價重挫,但台積總裁魏哲家在法說會表示,海外布局不變。魏也拋出「晶圓製造2.0」,將晶圓代工產業向下延伸。按新定義,台積電在全球晶圓代工市占率將由逾六成降至28%。市場解讀,有意藉此降低反壟斷風險,避免步輝達後塵。

July 18:

Trump's "protection fee" remarks caused the stock price of the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) to plummet, but TSMC President C. C. Wei stated at a press conference that its overseas expansion plans remain unchanged. Wei also introduced "Wafer Manufacturing 2.0," which extends the wafer foundry industry downstream. According to the new definition, TSMC's global market share in the wafer foundry will drop from over 60 percent to 28 percent. The market interprets this move as an attempt to reduce antitrust risks and avoid following in NVIDIA's footsteps.

 

7/19

在野黨推動國會改革法案修法通過後,民進黨政府質疑有違憲之虞,聲請釋憲及暫時處分。憲法法庭認為,聽取總統國情報告、聽取官員報告與質詢、人事同意權、調查權與聽證會、藐視國會部分有違憲爭議,通過裁准暫時處分。

憲法法庭將於8月6日進行釋憲案言詞辯論,依法應在11月6日前宣判,必要可延長2個月;現有15名大法官,7人將在10月底任滿。

July 19:

After the opposition pushed through legislative reform bills, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) administration questioned its constitutionality and requested a constitutional interpretation and temporary injunction. The Constitutional Court found that parts of the bill, including entertaining of the president's state report, entertaining and interpellation of official reports, personnel consent rights, investigative rights, hearings, contempt of parliament, have constitutional controversy and approved the temporary injunction.

The Constitutional Court will hold oral arguments on the constitutional interpretation case on August 6 and must rule by November 6, with a possible two-month extension if necessary. Seven of the current 15 justices will complete their terms at the end of October.

 

7/19

中經院公布最新全年經濟成長率預估值3.81%,較上次預測的3.38%,上修了0.43個百分點。中經院分析,受惠AI等發展應用,推升台灣股市創新高,財富效果帶動民間消費成長;同時因相關出口暢旺,更推升經濟成長,成長模式為「內外皆溫」

July 19:

The Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research (CIER) announced the latest annual economic growth rate forecast of 3.81 percent, an upward revision of 0.43 percentage point from the previous forecast of 3.38 percent. The CIER analyzed that the development and applications of AI have boosted Taiwan's stock market to new highs, with the wealth effect driving private consumption growth. Meanwhile, robust related exports have further boosted economic growth, resulting in a "warm both internally and externally" growth model.