2024/11/17-2024/11/23

11/16
美國總統拜登與中國大陸國家主席習近平在秘魯會談。陸媒報導,習表示台灣問題、民主人權、道路制度與發展權利是中方四條紅線,並首度提及賴清德總統名字,呼籲美方認清賴和民進黨當局的台獨本性,慎之又慎處理台灣問題。大陸領導人直接點名批評台灣領導人,過往罕見。
我相關單位稱經向美確認,無論公開或私下談話,習都未提到「賴清德」三個字。國安局長蔡明彥表示,不能排除是認知作戰。

November 16:

President Joe Biden of the United States and Chinese President Xi Jinping met in Peru. According to Chinese media, Xi stated that Taiwan, democracy and human rights, China's path and system, as well as right to development are China's four insurmountable red lines. He mentioned President Lai Ching-te by name for the first time, urging the United States to recognize Lai and the Democratic Progressive Party's (DPP) pro-independence nature and handle Taiwan with caution. It is rare for Chinese leaders to directly criticize Taiwanese leaders by name. Relevant U.S. authorities confirmed that Xi did not mention Lai in either public or private conversations. According to Director Tsai Ming-yen of the National Security Bureau (NSB), the possibility that the maneuver may be cognitive warfare cannot be ruled out.

 

11/19
新加坡總理黃循財與中共領導人習近平於APEC場邊會晤後,中方稱星國反對台灣獨立,堅定恪守一個中國原則。外交部反駁,新加坡政府未表達此等言論,中方說法顯非事實,未經他國同意即代為發表不實涉台言論。
不過新加坡外交部網站確實有「新加坡有明確和一貫的『一個中國』政策,反對台灣獨立」文字。外交部改口稱,各自發布新聞稿後,已充分交換意見,瞭解彼此立場。

November 19:

After a meeting between Prime Minister Lawrence Wong of Singapore and Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Economic Leaders' Meeting, China claimed that Singapore opposes Taiwan independence and firmly adheres to the "One China" principle. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA) refuted this stating that the Singaporean government did not express such remarks and that China's statement was not factual. However, the press release on Singapore's Ministry of Foreign Affairs website states that Singapore has a clear and consistent "One China" policy and opposes Taiwan independence. MOFA later clarified that after issuing their respective press releases, Taiwan and Singapore exchanged views and understood each other's positions. 

 

11/19
台灣民意基金會對賴清德總統聲望進行最新民調顯示,賴聲望大幅下滑,42.8%贊同賴處理國家大事的方式,43%不贊同,首度出現死亡交叉。台灣民意基金會董事長游盈隆表示,賴第一次執政困境已在眼前,多數民意已離他而去。

November 19:

A recent poll by the Taiwan Public Opinion Foundation (TPOF) shows a significant decline in President Lai's approval rating, with 42.8 percent approval of his handling of national affairs and 43 percent disapproval, marking the first "death cross." TPOF Chairman You Ying-lung stated that Lai's first governance crisis is now evident, with the majority of public opinion turning away from him. 

 

11/20
國泰世華銀行首席經濟學家林啟超指出,如果川普完全落實加徵關稅的政見,對台灣明年經濟成長「保三」將形成較大挑戰。林持續看好台灣與美國股市表現,但台股有兩大變數:川普在社群媒體的發言可能造成市場震盪波動,指數股市已經連漲兩年、乖離率偏大,市場可能出現修正壓力。

November 20:

According to Chief Economist Lin Chi-chao of Cathay United Bank, if U.S. President-elect Donald Trump fully implements his tariff increase policies, they will pose a significant challenge to Taiwan's economic growth next year. Lin remains optimistic about the performance of Taiwan and U.S. stock markets, but there are two major variables for Taiwan stocks: Trump's comments on social media could trigger market volatility, and the stock index has risen for two consecutive years with a high deviation rate, which may lead to correction pressure in the market.

 

11/20
勞動部一名職員疑因職場霸凌輕生,勞動部公布調查結果,主管確有咆哮、怒罵等不當言行,但無法證明霸凌,並指主管在工作上的要求「目的良善」,引發輿論強烈反彈。賴總統與行政院長卓榮泰親上火線致歉,勞動部長何佩珊請辭獲准,由不分區立委洪申翰接任,全案將重新調查。此案發生後,衛福部、國發會等多個政府機構也有職員表示遭到職場霸凌。

November 20:

A Ministry of Labor (MOL) employee allegedly committed suicide due to workplace bullying. The MOL released an investigation report, confirming that the supervisor had inappropriate behavior such as yelling and scolding but could not prove bullying. The report stated that the supervisor's work demands had "good intentions," which attracted strong public backlash. President Lai and Premier Cho Jung-tai publicly apologized, and Minister of Labor Ho Pei-shan resigned, with Legislator Hung Shen-han designated as the next minister. The case will be re-investigated. Following this incident, employees from several government agencies, including the Ministry of Health and Welfare and National Development Council, also reported incidents of workplace bullying. 

 

11/20
美國國會轄下的美中經濟暨安全檢討委員會(USCC)向國會遞交年度報告,建議修訂「武器出口管制法」,讓台灣與「北約+」成員國享有同等軍售待遇,這將簡化對台出口管制程序。根據美國武器出口管制法,「北約+」軍售案金額達到2500萬美元才需由國會批准,而對台軍售門檻為1400萬美元。

November 20:

The U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission (USCC) submitted its annual report to the United States Congress, recommending amendments to the Arms Export Control Act to grant Taiwan the same arms sales treatment a "NATO+" member countries. This would simplify the export control procedures for Taiwan. According to this law, arms sales to "NATO+" countries require Congressional approval for amounts exceeding $25 million, while the threshold for Taiwan is $14 million. 

 

11/21
美國眾議院「美國與中共競爭特別委員會」與華府智庫戰略暨國際研究中心(CSIS)模擬共軍犯台兵推,與會學者評估,一旦兩岸衝突,共軍將包圍台灣,台灣需靠自身兵力撐過一個月,美國才可能海空馳援台灣。

November 21:

The U.S. House of Representatives Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party conducted a war game simulation of a mainland Chinese invasion of Taiwan. Scholars at the event assessed that in the event of a cross-strait conflict, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) would surround Taiwan, and Taiwan would need to rely on its own forces for a month before the United States can provide naval and air support. 

 

11/22
總統府發表,賴總統將在30日出訪南太平洋友邦馬紹爾群島、吐瓦魯以及帛琉,預計12月6日返抵國門,這是賴總統上任後首度出訪友邦。至於備受關注的過境地點,總統府及外交部仍不願公布,媒體報導地點為夏威夷和關島,不會過境美國本土。

November 22:

The Office of the President announced that President Lai will visit Pacific allies Marshall Islands, Tuvalu, and Palau starting November 30, and his delegation is expected to return to Taiwan on December 6. This will be President Lai's first official visit to diplomatic allies since taking office. The Office of the President and MOFA did not disclose the transit locations, but media reports suggest Hawaii and Guam, with no transit through the continental United States.