What Has Taiwan Learned from the Russia-Ukraine War？
By Wang Po-yuan
United Daily News, May 4, 2022
The Russia-Ukraine war on the surface was the result of the accumulation of old and new scores between the two countries, but behind the scene it was not without the power manipulation by the United States. After the outbreak of the war, President Joe Biden repeatedly criticized Russian President Vladimir Putin’s immoral attacks on civilians, and vowed that the United States will firmly support Ukraine’s fight for its freedom, democracy and survival. The U.S. coined the Russian-Ukraine war as democracy against totalitarianism, justice against aggression, and called on countries of the same belief to join its ranks. Not to be outdone, Russia warned the United States, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), and other countries of the real danger of a third World War if they continue to support Ukraine. The two sides each drew alliances, split the world into two, and disintegrated “globalization” into “two hemispheres.”
The United States called a spade a spade, saying the purpose of supporting Ukraine is to consume Russian military power. The war did not proceed as quickly as Mr. Putin envisioned, and with the economic sanctions imposed by Europe and the United States, Russia’s national strength was greatly damaged. China will rise, relying on its economic strength and military backing, and make claims as equals, to become the leader of the alliance outside Europe and America.
In March, President Biden invited leaders of the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries for a summit meeting in Washington, the major theme is countering China. Only Singapore’s Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong went in person—a face-saving trip for the host country. However, he mentioned that he does not agree with the jihad of the United States to fight against totalitarianism in Russia. He also appealed that China should have more say and participation in the international systems, such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank and Asian Development Bank. Because China’s economic strength has surpassed countries such as Britain, the United States, and Japan, he suggested that the United States and China shouldn’t be decoupled, because China is the largest trading partner of the United States as well as ASEAN. China is also the manufacturing base for numerous American enterprises. Once the chain is broken, monumental economic costs will hurt America.
Now that the United States is trying to win over the ASEAN, in addition to its political, diplomatic, and military deployments, it also proposes to launch the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework to counter China’s active and intensive relations there through the “One Belt, One Road” strategy and Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). But the ASEAN countries seem unwilling to be involved in the confrontation between the United States and China. Take India for instance, it plays an important role in the “Indo-Pacific Economic Framework,” and the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad). Its position was ambiguous during the Russian-Ukraine war. It didn’t go in tandem with Europe and the United States condemning Russia; it, instead, took advantage of the opportunity to buy oil and military hardware from Russia. After the recent meeting between the foreign ministers of China and India, the two sides seem to have established a preliminary relationship. It is worth watching whether India’s attitude will cause a rift in the U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy. In mid-May, the United States will again hold the ASEAN leader’s meeting, their participation and involvement are worth noting.
The purpose of the United States initiating the “Indo-Pacific Economic Framework” is to ask countries to choose sides. Although ASEAN countries are friendly with the United States, they have not ignored China. In 2021, the trade volume between China and ASEAN exceeded $800 billion. For the sake of national interests, all countries are vacillating between the two powers. They don’t want to be a pawn in the power game of the United States, but, instead, take advantage of the situation to benefit itself. Taiwan faces the variables of cross-strait relations and the pressure of trade dependence. How can we not be more cautious?
Many people say that today’s Ukraine is tomorrow’s Taiwan. Indeed, there are many similarities between the two countries. The war has taught Taiwan a valuable lesson; the United States has not sent its troops to assist its ally, which shows us the reality and cruelty of international relations. Ukraine is now full of flames and desolated buildings, and its people became destitute and wandered about as refugees, which reminds us of the importance of avoiding war. Being at the core of U.S.-China competition, we must have our own security strategy, and not recklessly choose sides and create tensions between two sides of the Taiwan Strait. After all, under the risk of geo-politics while striving for larger living space, consolidating our homeland and pursuing peaceful co-existence is the optimal choice to love Taiwan.
The author is chairman of the K.T. Li Foundation for Development of Science and Technology.