U.S.-China Strategic Mutual Trust Lost
By Kuo Chung-lun
United Daily News, May 24, 2024
Before May 20, American officials made many trips to Taiwan and mainland China, hoping that preventive diplomacy could work, but Beijing still reacted strongly to President Lai Ching-teh’s inaugural address and conducted military exercises. The mainland’s reactions exceeded U.S. expectations for three possible reasons: First, the United States had read President Lai’s speech but did not explain it to the mainland. Second, President Lai’s decision-making circle intentionally lied by revising the speech without telling the United States. Third, the United States did not comprehend the full meaning of Lai’s speech and did not communicate well to the mainland side so the latter misunderstood and thought that there would no problem.
Chiu Kun-hsuan, who formerly served as advisor to the National Security Council under President Ma Ying-jeou and attended the second meeting between Ma and Chinese President Xi Jinping, opined that it is the first possibility. According to Chiu, the United States knew Lai’s speech and gave its tacit agreement. This is based on the U.S. policy towards Taiwan, especially the recent argument that U.N. Resolution No. 2758 does not apply to the case of Taiwan’s international participation. The argument that Taiwan’s status is undetermined has already been U.S. policy, and the United States had indeed read Lai’s draft speech and accepted it.
Mainland’s Reading of U.S. Scheme: Let Taiwan Be Hatchet Man
This is also the mainstream view in mainland China, thinking it was a conspiracy. Mr. Liu Guoshen, a scholar at Xiamen University, said that the United States had read Lai’s speech and Washington had approved it. Mr. Liu said that Lai’s speech was a complete “Two-State Theory”, it was irritative and provocative, the rhetoric was intentional, together with the U. S. scheme behind the scenes—letting Taiwan be the hatchet man
The second possibility is related to deception and cognitive warfare, not only towards the United States but also towards people in Taiwan. On May 18, several media outlets simultaneously reported the four elements of President Lai’s speech as disclosed by a “high-level national security figure”. It is understood that this person who had served under President Tsai Ing-wen and will continue to serve in the Lai administration, made the disclosure in an internal briefing excluding certain media reporters. Later, it was found out that the contents were far different from the basic themes of President Lai’s May 20 speech.
In past practice, before the presidential inauguration or other important events, the outlines of the speech would be released to the media for advance reporting; the complete speech would be the extension of the outlines without exception. A person who admits having read the draft speech said, to his surprise, what he had read was far distant from the official text. If the Lai administration waged cognitive warfare against media and key opinion leaders, it would not be surprising that they have also deceived the United States.
U.S. Failed to Understand Taiwan Independence Hints in Lai’s Speech
The third view is that according to diplomatic practice, the United States would not ask for the full text of the inaugural speech, and Taiwan would not give it to the U.S. A person familiar with the practice said that Taiwan is not under American colonial rule and President Lai is not a puppet emperor. Nevertheless, to make sure whether both sides have different readings, the text of the key parts relating to cross-strait relations may have been exchanged.
Chao Chun-shan, professor emeritus of Tamkang University thought the United States had read the draft speech but failed to understand it. After all, the Chinese like to use euphemisms, so the United States did not understand them. Therefore, while President Lai did not state Taiwan independence in his speech, he practically implied the theme of “Taiwan independence worker” inside his speech. This is why mainland China reacted so furiously.
Likewise, after President Lai delivered his speech, all foreign reporters praised the speech without questioning, except Ms. Kathrin Helle of the Financial Times. In the past, she wrote several times about the theory of “suspicion of Lai” in her opinion pieces, saying Beijing has never trusted Lai. But this time Beijing may be correct in criticizing Lai because his speech has deviated from President Tsai’s policy.
No matter what the explanation is, this is a fait accompli. The United States may not have understood the speech then, but after mainland China protested, the United States understands it now. However, even if the United States is unsatisfied with President Lai, they will not express their views publicly. To use the terminology of Communist China, U.S.-Taiwan relations is the internal contradiction of the people, but the U.S.-China relation is the adversarial contradiction. The mainland is concerned that the anti-China atmosphere is on the rise in the United States, and it would be more difficult to handle if the U.S. Congress and the Republican Party used this opportunity to escalate the tension.
Mainland Blast “External” More than “Taiwan Independence” Forces
In recent verbal attacks, mainland China’s force against the United States is stronger than its criticism of Taiwan. Their reactions included criticizing the congratulatory statement by Secretary of State Antony Blinken, the sanctions on defense contractors which sold weapons to Taiwan, and Representative Mike Gallagher who had already resigned. Another theory is that the mainland has taken priority in dealing with foreign intervention more than Taiwan independence force. So, despite the United States repeatedly stating that the People’s Liberation Army should not provoke, the mainland still conducted military exercises.
Will the U.S. Watch Lai Administration More Closely?
If the United States had intended to avoid turmoil across the Taiwan Strait after May 20, then it has been proven a total failure, and the U.S.-China strategic mutual trust is lost. After then-Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan in August 2022, the U.S.-China high-level mil-to-mil meetings have been suspended. After last year’s meeting between President Joe Biden and Xi in San Francisco, the mil-to-mil meetings have been resumed gradually. But when the mainland conducted the “Sword-2024A” military exercises surrounding Taiwan, tension may arise between the two militaries. It may be difficult for the U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin to meet with mainland China’s Minister of Defense Dong Jun at the Shanghai-la Dialogue in Singapore on May 31.
Even if the State Department and the White House regret now, they will not act publicly. It is widely known in Taipei’s diplomatic circle that the White House has not been satisfied with Director Sandra Oudkirk of the American Institute in Taiwan (AIT) for a long time, thinking she lacks enough political alertness. So, Raymond Greene, currently the U.S. deputy chief of mission in Tokyo, will take over in July. In the future, the United States will watch the Lai administration more and more closely.