Outcome of U.S. Election May Reset U.S.-China Relations
United Daily News, November 8, 2020
How the political landscape will change after the United States elections is of global concern. Su Chi, former secretary-general of the National Security Council, said that if Joe Biden is successfully elected president, then he will no doubt put in place seasoned professionals on his foreign policy team. Biden will maintain anti-Chinese rhetoric, but that the relationship may have the opportunity to "reset." Wu Yu-shan, an academician of Academia Sinica, reminded readers that even if Biden becomes president, it will only change the form and scope of the U.S.-China conflict, not resolve it altogether.
The Fair Winds Foundation and Taipei Forum Foundation co-organized a seminar entitled "State of Affairs in East Asia After the U.S. Presidential Election," moderated by former Premier Fair Winds Foundation Chairman Jiang Yi-huah.
The presidential election in the United States has been the most antagonistic, chaotic, and bewildering election of the past hundred years. Whatever the outcome, there will be major implications for the United States itself and many countries around the world — especially in East Asia. Many eagerly await the policy agenda that will result. In particular, much attention has been directed to figuring out what the future looks like when it comes to US-Taiwan relations.
Su Chi spoke on cross-strait relations after the U.S. election and argued that Biden will continue to maintain an anti-China tone and focus on competition. The shows of military strength and combat readiness of the two sides are for political posturing, not bloodshed. With that in mind, there is opportunity of reconciliation and strategic dialogue between the United States and China. Su Chi predicted that the two sides will ease the trade war. The United States will strengthen relations with its allies, attach importance to international organizations, selectively launch technological wars, and may further promote a bilateral trade agreement (BTA) between the United States and Taiwan.
Wu reasoned that the root cause of the conflict between the United States and China is the shift of power between the two countries. As a rising power, mainland China presents as a challenger to America’s long-held position of world leader. Therefore, even if Biden wins the election, the conflict will persist as the reason for it persists. He expects that strategic hawks will prevail over economic hawks and that the United States will pay more attention to strategic security and improve relations with old allies. In areas such as environmental protection, climate change, and the fight against the coronavirus (COVID-19), the United States may even seek cooperation with the mainland.
Wu argued that when the gap of strength between the two powers begins to close, tension and conflict are inevitable. Taiwan is caught on the fault line between the two superpowers and has no escape.
Su further stated that if Donald Trump were re-elected president, then he would be more confident in his quest to overturn the global order, including strengthening resistance to China, accelerating economic decoupling, promoting the offensive deployment of military forces in the Western Pacific, and incorporating Taiwan into the U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy. Mainland China may be forced to resolve the Taiwan issue ahead of schedule.
Su argues that, as president, Biden will have professionals on the foreign policy team. Biden will maintain anti-China rhetoric, but there may be a chance to "reset" U.S.-China relations. The U.S.-China trade war may be eased, but only slightly. The Democratic Party will also abide by the Taiwan Relations Act, but China’s Xi Jinping will not stay on the defensive as had been his strategy in the past. With regard to cross-strait relations, if Biden enters the White House, it will likely be a longer process to “reset,” but Xi may not be willing to wait to its conclusion.
According to Su, if Trump were to be re-elected, then it would spell disaster for Taiwan. Trump’s political moves, which at first glance may seem good for Taiwan, may end up very unfavorable indeed. Typical of Trump’s superficial attempts at political strategy and maneuvering.