New Cold War Hostage Diplomacy：Lai Administration Indifferent？
The Storm Media Editorial, June 26, 2024
China's Anti-Espionage Law came into effect on July 1st, and within the past year, eight retired Taiwanese military and police officers have been detained upon entering mainland China. Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) has warned that Communist China might exploit these detentions to recruit and co-opt these individuals. However, this is not a one-sided issue; similar occurrences are happening across the Pacific in the United States. Recently, 20 Chinese students were detained and interrogated by U.S. customs officials, with some even being deported. Both China and the United States are intensifying their scrutiny of suspicious individuals, leading to a new cold war scenario characterized by human flow control and hostage diplomacy.
Interrogation Rooms: Breeding Grounds for Informants?
The number of Taiwanese citizens being detained or interrogated upon arriving in China is steadily increasing. This trend affects not only businesspeople, scholars, and religious figures but also, notably, retired military and police officers. The MAC suggests that the Chinese authorities aim to gather information about these individuals' professional backgrounds, colleagues, networks, and job responsibilities. There is also concern that during these detentions, Communist China might attempt to coerce or recruit these individuals to work for them.
One of the earliest notable cases dates back to March 2017, when NGO worker Lee Ming-che was detained by national security personnel upon entering Zhuhai from Macau. He was later sentenced to five years in prison for "subverting state power," with the Chinese authorities failing to notify his family within 24 hours as required. Subsequently, several other Taiwanese nationals, including scholars Lee Meng-chu, Tsai Chin-shu, and Shih Cheng-ping, were imprisoned under accusations of being Taiwanese spies. These cases were heavily publicized by Chinese state media, but the alleged espionage techniques were so rudimentary and easily detectable that they hardly qualified as even entry-level intelligence activities.
Since then, multiple incidents have highlighted the growing tension. Fu Cha (Li Yanhua), editor-in-chief of Eight Banners Cultural Publishing, was detained by Shanghai state security and went missing for over a year. Similarly, senior journalist Chen Minli of the South China Morning Post has been unaccounted for. Professor Wang Ming-xian of the Graduate Institute of International Affairs and Strategic Studies, Tamkang University, was detained during an academic exchange visit to mainland China in 2023. Additionally, a retired military officer from Kinmen, who went fishing, has been detained for over three months and has not yet returned to Taiwan. These cases, already frequent, are expected to increase with the enforcement of the Anti-Espionage Law.
Escalating Tech War and Blocking Talent Flow
In the United States, four Chinese students who arrived for studies and academic conferences were recently taken to a "black room" by U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) officers for interrogation lasting over ten hours; three were subsequently deported. These students were all from STEM fields, with two specializing in artificial intelligence, and were questioned about their possible affiliation with the Chinese Communist Party. Over the past few years, the United States has interrogated and deported more than 30 Chinese students in computer and information sciences, with some detained for up to five days. A Chinese Ph.D. student specializing in semiconductor research at a university in Washington, D.C., remarked, "I haven't been able to return home in the six years since I started my studies."
The U.S.-China trade war has escalated into a tech cold war, with American executives and officials stationed in China increasingly subjected to interrogations and travel restrictions by the Chinese government. This has fostered a new cold war atmosphere characterized by mutual "hostage diplomacy" tactics to gain negotiation leverage. In December 2018, following Canada’s arrest of Huawei's CFO Meng Wanzhou, Communist China detained former Canadian diplomat Michael Kovrig and businessman Michael Spavor, severely straining Sino-Canadian relations and impacting diplomatic ties with other countries, including the United States and United Kingdom.
From the business and diplomatic sectors to academic circles, Chinese students specializing in AI and other tech fields have been the primary targets of these interrogations. This is an extension of the tech cold war aimed at blocking advancements in semiconductors, AI technology, and the flow of high-tech talent. U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell recently suggested that American universities should increase enrollment of Indian students in STEM fields while welcoming Chinese students in the humanities, revealing a clear strategic intention.
Beijing's Harsh Measures, Boon for DPP
Recently, Beijing has implemented severe measures, as the Taiwan Affairs Office and five major institutions (the Supreme Court, Supreme People's Procuratorate, Ministry of Public Security, Ministry of State Security, and Ministry of Justice) issued "Opinions on Punishing Taiwan Independence Advocates." These measures stipulate that those committing the crime of secession and posing a particularly severe threat could face penalties harsher than those for Hong Kong separatists, including the death penalty. Key figures in such activities could be sentenced to life imprisonment or fixed-term imprisonment of ten years or more, effective immediately. Beijing's recent actions are clearly intended to intimidate certain Green Camp political figures, though it seems to have little apparent effect, potentially hindering existing cross-strait exchanges and inadvertently providing the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) administration with a favorable opportunity.
Notably, following the passage of the Hong Kong National Security Law and Article 23 of the Hong Kong Basic Law, many people began to worry about the implications of traveling to Hong Kong. The introduction of even stricter regulations now may exacerbate these concerns, significantly reducing the willingness for cross-strait exchanges.
As Europe shifts to the right and with the U.S. presidential election approaching, the potential election of Trump could steer the United States towards right-wing populism, possibly leading to a global rightward shift. Taiwan, already under severe military threat from China, now faces the additional challenge of Beijing employing hostage-taking as a new tactic against it. Currently, there is no foundation of mutual trust or channels for resolving disputes between the two sides of the strait. The DPP administration has erected a new Cold War barrier, using the Anti-Infiltration Act during election periods to scrutinize village chiefs, and weaving a national security net with the "Five National Security Laws." Amid rising tensions between the United States and China, Taiwan has become the "new Berlin" in this new Cold War era.
Boiling the Frog Slowly: Path to Darkness?
Before her departure, Director Sandra Oudkirk of the American Institute in Taiwan (AIT) left a parting message for Taiwan: "Do not be alarmed by China's provocative actions and words, but do not become numb to the risks." This statement seemed directed at President Lai Ching-te. However, is Lai not only "numb" but also exacerbating the new Cold War situation? Or does he see himself as a righteous crusader, willing to "go all the way to the end"?
Sadly, "national security" has become a cheap excuse for hostage-taking and increasing negotiation leverage. In the terrifying atmosphere of espionage and intrigue, Lai's administration appears willing to confront Beijing, shifting the burden onto the Taiwanese people. Those who frequently travel between the two sides of the strait now live in constant fear, left to fend for themselves.