Improving Cross-Strait Relations, Starting from Kind Words

By Chao Chun-Shan

United Daily News, February 18, 2021

Leaders on both sides of the Taiwan Strait have taken the opportunity of the Chinese New Year to express their wishes to each other. Chinese President Xi Jinping's greeting is to "Taiwan compatriots," while President Tsai Ing-wen's greeting is to "people on the other side." With different wording, it tells the difference in relationship closeness.

The Chinese have always liked to "chew words", and "listen to what they say" first, then "watch what they do." Just imagine how misinterpretation of the term "1992 Consensus" (i.e. one China, with respective interpretations) alone could have frozen cross-strait relations for four years. Chinese culture is broad and profound. Many foreign friends have asked me about the proper terms such as "One China, with the same interpretation", "One China, with separate interpretations", and "One China, without interpretation", and so on. No matter how hard I explained to them, they just replied with puzzled eyes.

When it comes to the “medicine,” I think of the coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine. The Chinese website of the New York Times published a special article before the Chinese New Year with the headline "It's Time to Trust the Vaccines from China and Russia." The article asserts that several rich countries in the world are facing vaccine shortages, while some poor countries worry that they will not get vaccines at all. However, these two problems may find remedies by vaccines from China and Russia.

The New York Times emphasized that vaccines from China and Russia were rejected in the past, apart from distrusting their health supervision systems, it also believed that China and Russia are both "authoritarian countries." This phenomenon also occurs in Taiwan. So far, some figures in the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) administration have insisted on referring to the coronavirus as "Wuhan pneumonia” instead of the internationally accepted “COVID-19” or “novel coronavirus.” Such naming is intentional. In responding to the mainland’s intention to donate vaccines to Taiwan, the DPP administration declined solely based on “political considerations”, even reluctant to say a “thank-you” for such an offer. With cross-strait relations at this stage, can we still hope that "spring comes with flowers blooming"?

Mr. Xi did not talk about cross-strait relations in his speech on New Year's Eve, but President Tsai reiterated her proposition for resuming cross-strait talks, although her position has not changed. I think President Tsai is responding to the position of the United States at this moment, because Kurt Campbell, the United States’ Coordinator for the Indo-Pacific, sent out a message looking forward to the resumption of dialogue between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait a year ago, emphasizing that the United States will not intervene and that "the ball is on Beijing's side”. The Tsai administration is currently observing changes in U.S.-China relations. Judging from the content of the call between the leaders of China and the United States, there were no consensus on how to handle the "Taiwan issue." The Chinese government insists that this is its "core interest," and there is no room for concession. Although President Joe Biden of the United States "supports Taiwan", he can only express "concerns" and does not propose any specific countermeasures against the China’s possible coercive actions. Taiwan can only hope that mainland China and the United States reach a crisis-control mechanism to avoid misunderstanding and misjudgment.

Mr. Xi emphasized the need to "firmly take the lead and uphold the initiative in the development of cross-strait relations." Wang Yang, Chairman of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), said at this year's “Working Conference on Taiwan” that "time" and "situation" are always on the Mainland side. However, the Mainland blamed Taiwan for the failure of resuming talks between two sides, and asked the Tsai administration to accept the "1992 Consensus" first.

While Taiwan, the United States, and mainland China are "playing the ball to each other," cross-strait relations will temporarily maintain a state of “tension inside and ease outside”. China is now waiting for Mr. Biden to play his cards and observing the future political changes in Taiwan. Subsequently, the mainland may adopt a strategy of "making the best of the situation" to bring the cross-strait situation for a final showdown at the optimal timing. In short, the current situation of "no war, no peace" between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait cannot last long.

I think that 2024 is a turning point in the cross-strait relations, when it may face a situation of “peace or war”. For Taiwan, there are no elections in this year. The year 2021 is one in which President Tsai can "actively make a difference" in her mainland policy. After 2021, the situation may be less favorable, because the Tsai administration  is likely be restrained by more internal and external factors, and can hardly make any significant achievements. However, if the two sides of the Taiwan Strait can bring a good atmosphere this year, President Tsai may have the opportunity to take advantage of the trend, and create a situation for the long-term stability of Taiwan.

“Kind words without actual deeds” is not a good conduct. Yet kind words to others are always welcome. It may serve as a gesture of good-will. If the two sides of the Strait are reluctant to say "kind words", it is even harder to expect the happening of "actual good deed."

The author is professor emeritus of the Graduate Institute of China Studies, Tamkang University.

From: https://udn.com/news/story/7340/5256844
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