End of "Western-Led Order": Kishore Mahbubani Warns Taiwan Against Pursuing Independence
The Storm Media, September 11, 2024
The outcome of the presidential election in the United States is bound to reshape geo-political dynamics and U.S.-China relations. Under this context, Taiwan's future has become increasingly critical. In a lecture, senior Singaporean diplomat Kishore Mahbubani cautioned that the "Western-led order" is nearing its end, and Taiwan risks being sacrificed if it pursues independence. He notes that most countries are unlikely to recognize Taiwan as an independent state.
Mahbubani delivered his keynote address at the "2024 Geopolitical Summit: Prospects after the U.S. Presidential Election" organized by the K.T. Li Foundation for Development of Science and Technology, Fair Winds Foundation, and Southeast-Asia Impact Alliance on September 11.
Mahbubani stated that he is speaking to the people of Taiwan as a friend. If one were to list the most dangerous regions in the world, Taiwan would rank very high, and Taiwan needs to clearly understand the ongoing geopolitical shifts. Mahbubani discussed the structural changes occurring globally, noting that for the past two centuries, the world has been predominantly influenced by the West, but this era is evidently coming to an end.
While the West remains the most powerful civilization and continues to impact the world, its ability to dominate is waning. For example, following the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war, the West naturally imposed sanctions on Russia. However, 85 percent of the world's population did not follow suit, highlighting the West's relative isolation. Mahbubani cautioned against ignoring these significant structural changes in the global landscape.
The primary geopolitical competition today is between the world's leading power, the United States, and rising power, China, and this rivalry is expected to intensify over the next decade. According to Mahbubani, in such competition, the players often become expendable and thus need to employ appropriate political skills to avoid being caught in geopolitical storms.
Mahbubani highlighted three forces driving structural changes in geopolitics. The first is the "iron law" of geopolitics: When China nears surpassing the United States as the world's largest power, the United States will do everything possible to suppress China. The second, less frequently discussed force, is the Western fear of Asians. According to Mahbubani, the United States struggle with China is not solely driven by rational calculations; when influenced by emotions, the situation becomes even more perilous.
The third structural force is ideological. Mahbubani noted that nearly every American leader emphasizes the competition between democracy and autocracy, asserting the need to defend democracy and oppose autocracy. Just as the Soviet Union was demonized by the United States during the Cold War, efforts are now underway to demonize China. Simultaneously, Washington politicians hold a deep-seated belief that the United States has about a decade to prevent China from becoming the world's top economy, thereby strengthening various containment measures against China.
The next question is which side, the United States or China, will prevail in this competition. Mahbubani admitted he cannot provide a definitive answer, as "we have never seen two great powers of the scale of the United States and China compete against each other." In Mahbubani's view, both societies have three significant advantages. For China, its civilization is one of the world’s most continuous and resilient; Chinese leaders are among the most proactive in the world; and the more China is suppressed, the more it sparks an extraordinary spirit of struggle among its people.
According to Mahbubani, the West believes China’s economic growth has ended, citing issues like the real estate crisis and lack of foreign investment. However, he argued that anyone with historical perspective would recognize that even if China’s economy experiences a slowdown or downturn for a few years, it still follows a long-term growth trajectory. “I do not think the story of China’s growth is over.”
In contrast, Mahbubani acknowledged that the United States is also an impressive society with remarkable achievements. Interestingly, he indicated that the American approach is fundamentally different from China’s. One strength of the United States lies in its Darwinian-style internal debates, which foster strong individuals. This constant competition among individuals results in the creation of world-class companies.
A second advantage is that the United States attracts the best talent from around the world, providing opportunities to those with capability. This is why some of the world's most influential companies are based in the United States and are run by individuals not born there. The third advantage is America's exceptional culture of innovation, as evidenced by its leading and significant advancements in AI.
Regarding the competition between these two powerful societies, Mahbubani remarked that it is unpredictable how it will evolve. Consequently, regardless of who emerges victorious in the 2024 U.S. presidential election, U.S.-China relations will continue to be driven by structural forces. On the other hand, Mahbubani noted that the China policies of presidential candidates Donald Trump and Kamala Harris differ significantly. The administration of President Joe Biden prides itself on its efforts to rally more allies against China, whereas his predecessor Donald Trump viewed allies as liabilities rather than assets. Trump's unpredictability meant he was willing to make sacrifices for any given deal.
Mahbubani emphasized, "This is why Taiwan must be extremely cautious. Taiwan can easily be sacrificed in negotiations; geopolitics is very brutal and unforgiving." He expressed shock that Mike Pompeo, who served as Secretary of State under Trump, suggested in a speech in Taiwan that the United States should recognize Taiwan as an independent country. "If this were to happen, Taiwan would likely find itself in a state of war."
Regarding Harris’s China policy, Mahbubani opined that it is relatively more predictable compared to Trump's approach. The recent debate between the two candidates highlights the continuity of Biden's policies.
In this context, what should be Taiwan’s most prudent course of action? Mahbubani solemnly advised that Taiwan needs to recognize the current danger and proceed with utmost caution. Although pursuing independence aims to gain greater freedom of action, it could actually make Taiwan more isolated. "If Taiwan pushes for independence, I assure you, most countries will not recognize Taiwan as an independent state. This is the reality of geopolitics."
Mahbubani provided an example to illustrate his point: for most countries, there is no choice between China and Taiwan. He cited trade between China and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), which was only $40 billion in 2008 but surged to nearly $1 trillion by 2022. “Southeast Asian countries are not going to sacrifice a trillion dollars.”
Mahbubani advised that if the people of Taiwan wish to maintain peace, they must understand the complex and difficult geopolitical environment they face. “Be very cautious!”