2024/12/14-2024/12/20
12/14
英國金融時報報導，華府智庫戰略與國際研究中心與麻省理工學院，首度針對台海戰爭中核武使用情境進行大型非機密兵棋推演。15次推演中，只有5次以解放軍撤退落幕，與去年兵推美國取得決定性勝利結果大相逕庭。
報告總結，美國政策制定者不應為了與中國的衝突，開發超出現有核現代化計畫的新核武，也不應追求核武數量上的優勢，期待以此嚇阻中國使用核武。
December 14:
According to Financial Times, the Center for Strategic and International Studies and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology conducted a large-scale non-classified war game scenario involving the use of nuclear weapons in a Taiwan Strait conflict for the first time. Out of 15 simulations, only five ended with the retreat of the People's Liberation Army (PLA), a stark contrast to simulations last year where the United States achieved decisive victories.
The report concludes that American policymakers should not develop new nuclear weapons beyond the existing modernization plans or seek numerical superiority in nuclear weapons to deter China from using nuclear weapons.
12/15
陸軍向美國採購108輛M1A2艾布蘭戰車，首批38輛運抵台灣。這是時隔30年，陸軍再度接收新戰車。軍事專家分析，這將使國軍戰車的水平從1980年代，躍升到21世紀。這批被稱「地表最強」的戰車，將全數部署於北部地區，防衛中樞。
December 15:
The Army procured 108 M1A2 Abrams tanks from the United States, with the first batch of 38 tanks arriving in Taiwan. This marks the first time in three decades that the Army has received new tanks. Military experts analyze that this will elevate the capability of the Army's tanks from the 1980s to the 21st century. THese tanks, dubbed the strongest on the surface, will be fully deployed in northern Taiwan to defend the central government.
12/17
台北、上海雙城論壇落幕，上海副市長華源拋利多，將積極推動上海居民赴台團隊遊，被視為北京對台釋出善意。陸委會表示歡迎，但對陸客團提出「三不」原則：不是出於政治目的、不附條件、不會隨時為脅迫而叫停。交通部呼籲陸方解開政治限制，將滾動檢討禁團令。
陸委會雖放行了雙城論壇，但上海市台辦主任金梅和媒體記者共11人申請遭駁回，未能來台。陸委會稱，中國大陸「懲獨廿二條」影響兩岸正常交流，涉台官員來台都會嚴審。
December 17:
The Taipei-Shanghai Twin City Forum concluded, with Deputy Mayor Hua Yan of Shanghai announcing plans to actively promote group tours for Shanghai residents to Taiwan, seen as a goodwill gesture from Beijing. The Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) welcomed this but proposed the "Three Nos" principle for mainland Chinese tourist groups: Not for political purposes, no conditions attached, and not to be stopped at any time for coercion. The Ministry of Transportation and Communications urged mainland China to lift political restrictions and will review the ban on group tours.
Although the MAC approved the Twin City Forum, the applications of 11 people, including Director Jin Mei of Shanghai's Taiwan Affairs Office and media reporters, were rejected. The MAC stated that mainland China's 22 guidelines on punishing diehard Taiwan independence separatists affect normal cross-strait exchanges, and Taiwan-related official applications will be strictly reviewed.
12/17
行政院宣布，國安會諮詢委員馬永成將出任行政院政務委員，銜接全社會防衛工作。據指出，全社會防衛原由軍人背景的政委季連成負責，季並兼任總統府全社會防衛韌性委員會執行秘書，但不論民防或演習，季的想法與府院格格不入，職務遭到調整。
December 17:
The Executive Yuan announced that Senior Advisor Ma Yung-cheng of the National Security Council will be appointed as Minister without Portfolio, Executive Yuan, taking over the work on whole-of-society defense resilience. According to sources, civil defense was originally handled by Minister without Portfolio Chi Lien-cheng, who has a military background and also served as executive secretary of the Whole-of-Society Defense Resilience Committee, Office of the President. However, Chi's ideas on civil defense and exercises were at odds with the Office of the President and Executive Yuan, leading to his reassignment.
12/18
前總統馬英九三度訪問中國大陸，在黑龍江哈爾濱會見大陸國台辦主任宋濤。陸方陣容盛大，包含國台辦副主任仇開明、至少七位國台辦局長及九個省市的台辦主任出席。馬強調台灣民心渴望兩岸交流，這才是真正的台灣主流民意；宋回應會認真的傾聽每一次呼籲兩岸交流的聲音。
December 18:
Former President Ma Ying-jeou visited mainland China for the third time, meeting with Director Song Tao of the Taiwan Affairs Office of mainland China's State Council in Harbin, Heilongjiang Province. The mainland had a grand lineup, including Deputy Director Qiu Kaiming, at least seven bureau chiefs, and directors of Taiwan Affairs offices from nine provinces and municipalities. Ma emphasized that Taiwan's people desire for cross-strait exchanges represents the true mainstream public opinion in Taiwan. Song responded that they would seriously listen to every call for cross-strait exchanges.
12/18
日本兩大車廠本田與日產協商合併，可能因台灣鴻海介入而加速。鴻海集團已接洽日產，洽談收購股權。日本經濟新聞報導，本田已揚言，如果日產追求與鴻海合作，本田將解除與日產現有技術合作；反之，若鴻海對日產進行敵意收購，本田將出手相救。
December 18:
Japan's two major car manufacturers, Honda and Nissan, are negotiating a merger, which may be accelerated due to the involvement of Taiwan's Hon Hai Precision Industry Company (Foxconn). The Foxconn Group has approached Nissan to discuss acquiring shares. According to Nikkei, Honda has threatened to terminate its existing technical cooperation with Nissan if the latter pursues cooperation with Foxconn. Conversely, if Foxconn attempts a hostile takeover of Nissan, then Honda will intervene to help.
12/18
美國能源部前部長、諾貝爾物理獎得主朱棣文應邀來台以「邁向電力超載及實現溫室氣體淨零排放的其他挑戰」為題專題演講。他呼籲，全球多國確實已重新接納核能屬於潔淨能源，台灣政治人物應不分黨派重新思考核能的使用，核能可以帶來能源安全。
針對朱棣文的說法，經濟部表示沒有回應。
December 18:
Former U.S. Secretary of Energy and Nobel Prize in Physics laureate Steven Chu was invited to Taiwan to give a keynote speech about challenges in achieving power overload and net zero carbon dioxide emissions. Given that many countries worldwide have indeed reaccepted nuclear energy as clean energy, Chu urged that Taiwanese politicians should consider the use of nuclear energy across party lines, as it can bring energy security. The Ministry of Economic Affairs did not comment on Chu's remarks.
12/19
中央銀行宣布利率維持不變，面對美國聯準會釋出明年將減緩降息步伐的「鷹聲」，央行總裁楊金龍則表示，利率「目前沒有偏鴿的可能」。楊表示，央行微幅上修明年經濟成長率至3.13%，並未把美國新政府的經貿政策變動納入模型考量，因為不確定因素太大，是明年經濟成長的重要變數。
December 19:
The Central Bank announced that interest rates would remain unchanged. In response to the Federal Reserve's "hawkish" signals about slowing the pace of rate cuts next year, Governor Yang Chin-long of the Central Bank stated that there is currently no possibility of a dovish stance on interest rates. Yang mentioned that the Central Bank slightly revised the economic growth rate for next year to 3.13 percent, without incorporating changes in American trade policies to the model due to significant uncertainties, which are an important variable for economic growth next year.
12/20
立法院在朝野立委激烈衝突之後，完成選罷法、憲法訴訟法、財劃法修法之修正案。其中《選罷法》嚴格審查罷免案連署人是否造假；《憲法訴訟法》明訂大法官做成違憲宣告時，同意人數不得低於9人；《財劃法》則讓地方政府可以分得更多的稅收。
執政的民進黨為阻止法案之通過，號召群眾包圍立法院並一度試圖衝入議場，但被警方所阻止。表決通過後，在野陣營稱此乃人民之勝利，執政黨則士氣低迷，批評在野黨「毀憲亂政」。
December 20:
After intense clashes between ruling and opposition party legislators, the Legislative Yuan passed amendments to the Public Officials Election and Recall Act, Constitutional Court Procedure Act, and Act Governing the Allocation of Government Revenues and Expenditures. The amended Election and Recall Act strictly reviews whether the signatories of recall petitions are falsified; the amended Constitutional Court Procedure Act stipulates that when grand justices make a declaration of unconstitutionality, the number of consenting justices must not be less than nine; the amended Fiscal Allocation Act allows local governments to receive more tax revenue.
To prevent the passage of these bills, the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) mobilized crowds to surround the Legislative Yuan and attempted to storm the chamber but were stopped by police. After the votes passed, the opposition called the moment a victory for the people, while the morale of the ruling party was low. It criticized the opposition for destroying the Constitution and disrupting governance.