Why Won't Xi Play Mediator between Russia, Ukraine？
By Chao Chun-shan
United Daily News, March 18, 2022
Some have described the post-Cold War world turning a blind eye to escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine and the present war which has caused a huge global disaster.
Ukraine punched above its weight, and President Volodymyr Zelensky, having an actor background, plays the role of a “tragic hero” in this war drama. Although he has received external support in many ways, he also finds himself in a situation of fighting a lone battle. President Vladimir Putin of Russia is the initiator of this war, hence the target of public criticism. Sanctions from all sides are not only isolating his country, but also jeopardizing his ruling power.
As an ancient aphorism goes, "Injuring a thousand enemy would come at the cost of eight hundred own casualties." Both sides of the war are in a difficult bind and cannot afford to lose. This requires a mutual friend of both sides to be the mediator to help them get out of trouble. Chinese President Xi Jinping is best suited to such a role, as China maintains good relations with both Russia and Ukraine.
According to Beijing, Sino-Russian cooperation "has no end, no restricted area, and no upper limit." What impressed the outside world is that, amid the Western diplomatic boycott of the Beijing Winter Olympics, Putin first declared his position to participate in the opening ceremony, and consequently issued a "Joint Statement" with Xi.
China-Ukraine relations are also remarkable. On the one hand, Ukraine is the main source of food and energy imports to mainland China. It is an important gateway to Europe from Central Asia under the “Belt and Road Initiative.” On the other hand, China is Ukraine’s largest trading partner, providing funds for Ukraine’s infrastructure construction.
China initially wanted to face the Russian-Ukrainian conflict in a low-key manner. Xi and Putin avoided mentioning the conflict in their Joint Statement, just publicly expressed their common position against the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s (NATO) eastward expansion. China did not use the word "invasion" to describe Russia's dispatch of troops and abstained when the United Nations General Assembly voted to condemn Russia. Beijing did not forget to emphasize its consistent basic position of "respecting the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries" as a certain gesture to Ukraine. However, as the war escalates, Beijing finds it increasingly difficult to detach from it. First, the Western economic sanctions against Russia have affected China’s grand strategy of national development, i.e., prioritize stability while pursuing progress, set by the Communist Party’s central economic work conference last year. Notwithstanding China’s greater economic power than Russia, it is more deeply connected to the world economic system, hence the inevitable collateral damage by the sanction.
Second, according to Financial Times and the New York Times citing U.S. officials, Russia asked China to provide military equipment and economic assistance. Although both China and Russia denied it, in the "anti-China" atmosphere of the international community, the Communist Party cannot allow the West to link China to Putin's behavior through cognitive warfare.
Third, the Russian-Ukrainian war helped President Joe Biden’s gains in his "alliance diplomacy," but it has put the relationship between China and the European Union (EU) to the test. The rosy outlook of the China-EU Comprehensive Investment Agreement in 2020 was only a flash in the pan, and the relationship between the two sides quickly spiraled down due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, human rights in Xinjiang and the "Taiwan issue". For the mainland, the worst-case scenario is for the worry-free Biden to focus on strengthening the U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy that targets China and encouraging European allies to participate actively.
At present, it seems that a diplomatic solution to the dispute between Russia and Ukraine best meets the expectations of the outside world. Given the complexity of the situation in Russia and Ukraine, "promoting peace" is a thankless task that is easier said than done. But after weighing the pros and cons, Xi should have the mindset of "responding to the call to duty" and exhibit his role of the leader of a "responsible big country." This is beneficial to maintaining world peace and improving the international image of the Communist Party. Besides, if Xi should be successful in peace mediation, he might preside over the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party at the end of the year glorified with the halo of the "Nobel Peace Prize". This would also be a historical position he would have earned for himself.
The author is a professor emeritus at the Graduate Institute of China Studies, Tamkang University.