Trump's Return to the White House: Taiwan Faces Arduous Security Challenges
China Times Editorial, November 6, 2024
Republican candidate Donald Trump became the first U.S. president in over a century to return to office. The election was smooth and peaceful, demonstrating the superiority of the American political system. However, this does not necessarily signal the "golden era" Mr. Trump promises or a return to American greatness. The ongoing Ukraine war, Middle East conflicts, and the Taiwan Strait remain global hotspots, with Taiwan facing severe security challenges.
Mr. Trump swept seven key swing states, decisively defeating Democratic candidate Kamala Harris and helping the Republicans regain control of the Senate, securing a unified government. Undoubtedly, he is the biggest winner. Although exit polls show that domestic issues like democracy and the economy were the decisive factors in this election (each above 30 percent), with foreign policy under 5 percent, Mr. Trump's future foreign policy and its impact on shaping the global order are expected to be far more significant than anticipated.
American foreign policy traditionally emphasizes bipartisan consensus and continuity, meaning major strategic shifts are unlikely with a change in administration. However, any adjustments in response to key events, such as the Ukraine war or U.S.-China strategic competition, will have global ripple effects. Mr. Trump will not officially assume office until January 20, and the world is closely watching whether the stance of the United States and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) on the Ukraine war will remain unchanged, as its impact will extend to the Indo-Pacific region and the Taiwan Strait.
Mr. Trump's running mate JD Vance has argued that Taiwan is even more important to the United States than Ukraine. However, Mr. Trump has no intention of proactively aiding Taiwan's defense. Additionally, abandoning Ukraine would severely damage American international standing and affect Taiwan's security, putting Mr. Trump in a difficult position when it comes to decision-making.
Mr. Trump will continue his "anti-China" strategy, even escalating the trade and tech war with China to maximize commercial interests. However, he is not eager to strengthen military deterrence or build a formal anti-China alliance through diplomacy. He even claims to be a good friend of Chinese President Xi Jinping and believes he can influence China's decisions. Nearly all American think tanks and media analysts note that Mr. Trump's "transactional" foreign policy could use Taiwan as a bargaining chip in trade and technology negotiations with China.
Mr. Trump’s stance on Taiwan is elusive. In December 2016, as president-elect, he accepted a congratulatory phone call from Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen, which immediately provoked strong protests from China. It wasn’t until February 2017, after taking office, that Mr. Trump spoke with Mr. Xi for the first time and explicitly pledged to adhere to the "One China" policy. From that point on, Mr. Trump treated the Taiwan issue like a minefield, maintaining distance, and it is unlikely he will repeat that early move.
During his first term, Mr. Trump approved arms sales to Taiwan totaling $21 billion—nearly three times the $7.6 billion under the Biden administration. The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) administration at the time saw him as Taiwan's protector and strongly backed him in the 2020 election. However, in this election cycle, Mr. Trump publicly demanded that Taiwan pay a "protection fee" to the United States and allocate 10 percent of its gross domestic product (GDP) to defense. When asked whether the United States would intervene militarily if China were to attack Taiwan, he consistently avoided a direct answer, even remarking, "Taiwan’s situation is difficult. Don’t forget, it’s 9,000 miles away from the United States, while it’s only 100 miles from China."
In the face of the unpredictability of a "Trump 2.0" presidency, Director-General Tsai Ming-yen of the National Security Bureau remains optimistic, stating that the fundamental American framework towards Taiwan will not change significantly, regardless of who is elected. The direction of U.S. policy will remain consistent: "Contain China, befriend Taiwan." While both Mr. Trump and incumbent President Joe Biden may share a tough stance on China, it is debatable whether they will be equally supportive of Taiwan. Biden has publicly stated four times that the United States would intervene militarily if Taiwan were attacked.
When asked about the U.S. election results, Minister of Economic Affairs JW Kuo similarly downplayed the potential impact, suggesting that whoever wins would bring little change to Taiwan’s current economy. However, Mr. Trump has repeatedly criticized Taiwan for allegedly stealing the American semiconductor industry. If he returns to office, he may push Taiwan to invest in American semiconductor production, aiming to reduce American dependence on Taiwan. This could lead to the hollowing out of Taiwan’s semiconductor industry.
Moreover, Taiwan's exports to the United States have grown rapidly in recent years, and Taiwan has now become 7th largest U.S. trading partner, with exports reaching $87.8 billion last year. These exports could face the threat of high tariffs under a second Trump administration. Taiwan’s national security and economic leaders appear largely unconcerned about the potential impact of a Trump victory, let alone preparing effective responses.
Even with Mr. Trump's election, the security situation in the Taiwan Strait remains grave. While factors such as China’s internal economic, political, and social issues, as well as Mr. Xi’s stance of "peaceful development", make the likelihood of war over Taiwan relatively low for now, the looming "2027 Davidson Window"—a serious concern even for the United States—is steadily approaching. The failure of President Lai Ching-te’s administration in Taiwan to recognize the potential changes Mr. Trump’s return to office could bring leaves it still relying on U.S. security commitments.
Former U.S. Deputy Secretary of State James Steinberg has warned that all three parties—Taiwan, China, and the United States—are increasingly aware that time may not be on their side, underscoring the severity of Taiwan Strait security. However, the Lai administration remains convinced that, regardless of who occupies the White House, American policy will not change significantly and that Taiwan will not be greatly affected. This underestimation of Mr. Trump's unpredictability could be a serious miscalculation.
Photo from: United Daily News
Article from: https://www.chinatimes.com/opinion/20241106005375-262101?chdtv