President Lai Should Not Repeat Zelenskyy's Mistakes

United Daily News Commentary, February 19, 2025

After a four-hour meeting between United States Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs Sergey Lavrov in Saudi Arabia, four key agreements were reached. During a press conference at Mar-a-Lago, U.S. President Donald Trump discussed the talks, echoing Russia's position that both sides had lost many soldiers and that Russia wanted to end the war quickly.

Mr. Trump's focus was on criticizing President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine, claiming that the war could have been avoided if Mr. Zelenskyy had reached a settlement three years ago. He suggested that Mr. Zelenskyy could have secured almost all of Ukraine’s territory without bloodshed, framing Putin as a peace advocate and placing the blame on Mr. Zelenskyy for prolonging the war.

This critique should be a lesson for President Lai Ching-te. His current actions regarding cross-strait issues mirror Mr. Zelenskyy's past decisions, possibly leading Taiwan into a conflict. If a war over the Taiwan Strait occurs and Taiwan is defeated, then the United States may criticize Taiwan for allowing the war to happen, just as it has criticized Ukraine.

In recent years, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and its supporters promoted the slogan “Ukraine today, Taiwan tomorrow,” a view even supported by the late Prime Minister Shinzo Abe of Japan. At the time, it was believed that if Taiwan didn’t escape the "One China" framework, then the world would remain indifferent in the event of a cross-strait conflict. However, the true meaning of this phrase has become clear: Ukraine, as a proxy in the war, was eventually abandoned by the United States, and Taiwan might face the same fate.

Ukraine now struggles to regain lost territory, and even its economic resources—like rare earth minerals—are being handed over to the United States as compensation for past military aid. Those who once supported the “Ukraine today, Taiwan tomorrow” idea are now silent, realizing the chilling implications.

In fact, "Taiwan tomorrow" has already begun. The United States first had Ukraine fight the war and hand over mineral resources. Now, Taiwan faces similar demands from the United States to share the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company’s (TSMC) technology and investment. Once the United States obtains Taiwan’s top-tier semiconductor manufacturing technologies, it could then push Taiwan into war, indifferent to its destruction as it would deplete China’s resources.

President Lai now mirrors Mr. Zelenskyy from three years ago. While Mr. Zelenskyy dreamed of joining North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), President Lai fantasizes about one day entering the White House as the president of an independent nation. This political illusion is part of an American strategy to have its proxies walk into war.

Had Kyiv reached a deal with Moscow, it might have preserved its full eastern territories and even kept Crimea. If Taiwan engaged with Beijing under the “One China” framework, then the United States would find it much harder to target TSMC.

President Lai is currently attempting to please Mr. Trump with a $10 billion arms purchase to prevent TSMC’s technology from being seized by the United States. However, this may be in vain. What Mr. Trump truly cares about is American semiconductor manufacturing, not Taiwan's military purchases. If TSMC becomes “America’s TSMC,” then the benefits will far outweigh any arms deal.

If President Lai fails to understand the deeper implications of “Ukraine today, Taiwan tomorrow,” he should at least consider the true meaning of "Zelenskyy today, Lai tomorrow."

From: https://udn.com/news/story/6656/8558165
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