New U.S. Stance: Taiwan's Future to Be Decided by People on Both Sides of the Strait

 Want Daily Editorial, February 20, 2025 

The United States Department of State updated its "U.S.-Taiwan Relations Fact Sheet," drawing attention in Taiwan for its removal of phrases such as "does not support Taiwan independence." However, what has been largely overlooked is the addition of a new statement: "We expect cross-Strait differences to be resolved peacefully, without coercion, in a manner acceptable to the people on both sides of the Strait."

The underlying implication of this change is that Taiwan’s future is not solely to be determined by its 23 million people but rather by mainland China’s 1.4 billion plus Taiwan’s 23 million people collectively. This directly contradicts President Lai Ching-te’s assertion that "the Republic of China and the People’s Republic of China are not subordinate to each other" and fundamentally undermines the Democratic Progressive Party’s (DPP) charter and “Resolution on Taiwan’s Future.”

Hidden Agenda Behind the State Department’s Update

The DPP’s charter advocates for the establishment of "a sovereign and independent Republic of Taiwan," asserting that Taiwan’s future should be determined by its entire population. Meanwhile, the DPP’s Resolution on Taiwan’s Future states that Taiwan is an independent, sovereign country, and any change to this status must be decided through a referendum by the people of Taiwan. President Lai’s version of the "Two-State Theory," which emphasizes Taiwan’s independent sovereignty, is also based on this principle.

With the return of President Donald Trump to the White House, the State Department has removed the phrase "does not support Taiwan independence." In response, Minister of Foreign Affairs Lin Chia-lung immediately welcomed the move, and DPP legislators lauded President Trump for strengthening American support for Taiwan. However, Beijing reacted strongly, condemning the United States for a serious regression on the Taiwan issue, stating that it violates the “One China” principle and the three U.S.-China Joint Communiqués. The Taiwan Affairs Office of mainland China’s State Council also called on Washington to stop sending wrong signals that encourage Taiwan independence forces.

While the future of U.S.-China relations under President Trump remains uncertain, Beijing has made it clear that it will not tolerate any deviation on the Taiwan issue. Its forceful response serves as a defensive move, warning the Trump administration not to cross China’s red line.

Meanwhile, the DPP administration has selectively focused on the removal of "does not support Taiwan independence," portraying it as a diplomatic victory. However, it has ignored the added clause stating that cross-strait differences should be resolved in a manner acceptable to both sides. This self-deception and superficial optimism will only have negative consequences for Taiwan’s policy decisions and future cross-strait relations.

For decades, successive U.S. administrations have maintained a dual strategy on Taiwan, deterring Beijing from using force while also preventing Taiwan from unilaterally declaring independence. The removal of "does not support Taiwan independence" and the addition of "acceptable to both sides" are simply part of this same strategy.

The disappearance of "does not support Taiwan independence" does not mean that Washington supports or leans toward Taiwan independence. In fact, the State Department has confirmed to the media that the U.S. “One China” policy remains unchanged. Similar wording adjustments were made on the State Department’s website in 2022, yet throughout these changes, the “One China” policy itself never shifted. What has changed is merely the balance of power in Washington’s Taiwan strategy.

A Major Shift Not to Be Overlooked

The inclusion of the phrase "in a manner acceptable to people on both sides of the Strait" in an official U.S. document marks a significant policy shift and directly challenges the core ideological foundation of the DPP and President Lai. This addition also aligns with the views of American scholars who argue that Washington is sending a major signal to Beijing—that the U.S. opposes unilateral changes to the status quo by either side, but does not rule out any peaceful resolution that both sides agree upon.

Over the past two years, Beijing has actively sought Biden’s endorsement of its stance on peaceful unification, with Chinese President Xi Jinping even personally raising the issue at the Biden-Xi summit. However, the Biden administration did not respond. The recent change in the State Department’s fact sheet represents a major diplomatic breakthrough for Beijing in advancing its peaceful unification agenda.

Trump’s "Grand Bargain" with China No Small Matter

Since winning the election, Mr. Trump has expressed warm sentiments toward Xi, calling him a "great leader" and highlighting their close friendship. However, the fundamental nature of U.S.-China strategic competition will not change. While the United States still sees China as a direct challenge to its national interests, Beijing remains firm and cautious in its response, refusing to back down on trade and tariffs.

No matter how U.S.-China relations evolve, the Taiwan issue will remain a critical puzzle piece. President Trump’s ultimate goal in his second term is to negotiate a "grand bargain" with China under the "America First" principle, maximizing U.S. benefits while avoiding direct military conflict. The recent wording update on the State Department’s website reflects this shift toward a more flexible Taiwan policy.

Given President Trump’s unpredictability, Beijing remains cautious about his gestures of goodwill. President Trump has expressed a desire to hold a "Trump-Xi Summit" in the first half of the year, but no concrete progress has been made. If both sides reach a tacit understanding on Taiwan—for example, by reviving the spirit of the 1972 Shanghai Communiqué and guaranteeing that Taiwan will not pursue de jure independence—then Beijing might be willing to engage with Washington diplomatically and take on a more active role in global affairs.

Uncertain Future, but a Clear Trend

Although global geopolitics remains unpredictable, one thing is certain: De-escalation in U.S.-China tensions is positive not only for bilateral relations and cross-strait stability but also for the Indo-Pacific region and the broader world order.

From: https://www.chinatimes.com/opinion/20250220003860-262102?chdtv
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