National Security Bureau Official's Contradicting Views on PLA Capabilities
China Times Commentary, July 7, 2023
Director-General Tsai Ming-yen of the National Security Bureau (NSB) stated that the current atmosphere of war in the Taiwan Strait is all “manipulation" and not based on reality and that Communist China is not capable of attacking Taiwan by force at this juncture. As the head of the NSB, such an inference is worrisome. If Mr. Tsai's statement is true, then it would be a slap in the face to the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and the United States.
The origin of the narrative of "military threat" can be traced back to military exercises in the Taiwan Strait in August last year and April this year.
These exercises broke the tacit understanding between Taiwan and mainland China regarding the median line which served as an informal border between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait. This rule had been in place for decades, with both sides’ military aircrafts and warships not crossing the line. Due to mainland China’s military exercises, Taiwan's defense line has been pushed back to the 12-nautical-mile territorial sea. Consequently, The Economist has twice stated that "Taiwan is the most dangerous place on Earth." However, the primary reason for this situation is the DPP's "status quo change" in 2016, which tore apart the "1992 Consensus." If we truly seek to identify the culprit behind the Taiwan Strait crisis, it is likely the DPP.
In an interview with Sky News on January 18, Minister of Foreign Affairs Joseph Wu stated that the probability of China using military force against Taiwan is increasing, with 2027 being the most likely timeframe for Beijing to take action. In April, during an interview with CNN, he reiterated that "China is preparing to attack Taiwan." The DPP has been exploiting the continuous narrative of "military threats " to obtain military support from the United States, creating a favorable impression of U.S.-Taiwan relations, and rallying democratic countries worldwide to safeguard democracy while pandering to the U.S. strategy to contain China.
Mr. Tsai’s statement that "the tense atmosphere of potential military conflict is manipulated" directly contradicts those of fearmonger Mr. Joseph Wu and the DPP, which peddles anti-China sentiment. It also contradicts the United States, which has been arming Taiwan to become a "Porcupine Island," and both requested an extension of military service in Taiwan and questions whether New Taipei Mayor Hou Yu-ih’s proposal of reducing Taiwan’s conscription period back to four months. If Mr. Tsai’s statement is valid, then this would render the aforementioned actions a collusion between the United States and Taiwan engaging in cognitive warfare against voters.
In other words, if there is intelligence that supports statements from heavyweights like the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark Milley in regard to a potential attack by China on Taiwan. In that case, Taiwan should indeed be prepared for the worst-case scenario, and the recent judgment of National Security Bureau Director-General Tsai will undoubtedly bring major risks to Taiwan.
From: https://www.chinatimes.com/opinion/20230707004064-262101?chdtv